International oil prices rose, gold prices hit a one-month high

On April 5th (Tuesday), Beijing time, in the risk-averse sentiment of the spread market, the US dollar rose for the second consecutive day; US Treasury bonds fell, the benchmark yield rose from the lowest level in 2017; the gold price hit a one-month high; the US stock market basically Flat; international oil prices rose, Wednesday's report expected that US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell, the North Sea Buzzard oil field reportedly unplanned production. The key data this week is the non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday. In addition, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes of the March policy meeting on Wednesday.

[US stocks] S&P 500 index is expected to "accelerate bull market"

The Dow Jones index rose 39 points to 20,689 points, or 0.2%. Caterpillar is among the top gainers. The S&P 500 index rose 0.1% to 2,360. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.1% to 5,899.

Energy stocks were among the biggest gainers on Tuesday, as energy stocks rose, energy stocks in the S&P 500 rose 0.7%; optional consumer stocks fell 0.1%, lower for the second consecutive day; Markit data showed bearish The most prone consumer stocks were the most bearish, with an average short-selling ratio of 2.6% for the entire sector.

VIX fell for the first time in four trading days and fell to 11.8.

The stock market has not fluctuated in recent trading days, and the main stock indexes were relatively light at the end of the first quarter. Some investors and analysts attributed the stock market's light trading to investors who are reluctant to make new bets before several major events this week, including the Fed's March meeting minutes will be announced on Wednesday and the US employment report will be released on Friday.

Jason Hunter, a technical analyst at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a report on April 3 that there may be a wave of gains in the US stock market, and the S&P 500 is expected to “accelerate in the bull market”, as the strong economic data will make the currency re-expansion trade regroup. . It is recommended to buy financial stocks at nearby support levels, buy the S&P 500 at below the 2350 level, prepare to re-short in the US interest rate market, and enter a bet on a 10-year profit and loss balance inflation rate expansion.

[US debt] increase in the number of shorts

US Treasury bonds closed flat on Tuesday, retreating earlier gains as investors made a profit.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.314% earlier on Tuesday, then rebounded to close at 2.35%, the lowest closing level since February 24, and 2.351% on Monday.

As government bond yields approached the bottom of the 2.3%-2.6% range, some investors chose to make a profit.

The yield on 2-year government bonds was 1.2520%, up 2.6 basis points; the yield on 3-year government bonds was 1.4697%, up 3.5 basis points; the yield on 5-year bonds was 1.8898%, up 3.8 basis points; 30-year bond yields The ratio was 2.9999%, up 4.7 basis points; the 5/30-year bond yield spread widened by 0.7 basis points to 110.677.

Research by primary market traders shows that there are differences of opinion on the future shape of the yield curve. The number of shorts in the JPMorgan customer survey increased.

[Forex] Yen is strong

In New York, the US dollar rose on Tuesday, due to important data and investors avoiding high-risk assets before the China-US Summit.

The yen strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday and has risen more than 4% from its March low.

The general preference for safe-haven investments reflects to some extent how investors' concerns about the speed of US economic expansion and global politics are replacing investors' enthusiasm for US President Trump's commitment to implement policies. Quant Insight's research shows that the yen is overvalued from the model, especially against the Swedish Krona, the Philippine peso and the Euro. The current model uses interest rate differentiation and global sovereign risk as the biggest driving force for the yen in each currency pair. .

The euro failed to gain new momentum, and the market's fears of the euro zone's political risks and the drag on the euro zone's low interest rates have also faded recently, as eurozone officials have dispelled speculation about the market.

GBP/USD fell to a new low in the day, and then gained support at the 100-day moving average of 1.2417, and the decline in the late session narrowed to 1.2440.

According to data provided by the CME Group, federal funds rate futures used by investors and traders to bet on Fed policy showed on Tuesday that the Fed’s probability of raising interest rates at the June meeting was 57%.

[Gold] Gold positions continue to rise

International closed higher on Tuesday, boosted by weaker-than-expected US data. Some analysts said the data may cause the Fed to slow down the rate hike.

Gold futures settlement prices for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.4% to $1,258.4 per ounce.

The US manufacturing purchasing managers' index released on Monday was less than expected, and investors worried that the Fed may not fulfill its expectations of raising interest rates three times in 2017.

The position of SPDRGOLD Shares, the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, rose to its highest level in more than two weeks.

[Crude oil] International oil prices rose to a one-month high

Buzzard production disruption drives buying

International oil prices rose to a one-month high, helped by an unexpected disruption of oil production in the North Sea, and US crude oil and oil inventories are expected to decline.

In the North Sea of ​​the UK, the Buzzard field with a daily output of 180,000 barrels of crude oil was temporarily interrupted. The processing terminal on the shore was repaired and will return to normal production in the next one to two days. The disruption in production at Buzzard triggered an increase in oil prices and led to some buying.

OPEC's production reduction rate is still better than expected, and various monthly agency reports to be released next week will confirm these.

Michael Loewen, commodities strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, said the market began to realize that the total oil inventories will continue to decrease throughout the summer, so from a fundamental point of view, the situation in the US is starting to look a little better.

In May, WTI rose 79 cents, and the settlement price was 51.03 US dollars per barrel, which was above the 100-day moving average. In June, Brent rose 1.05 US dollars to close at 54.17 US dollars, and closed above the 100-day moving average and the Bollinger Band.

[RMB] is still oscillating between the 50th and 100th moving averages

Offshore RMB against the US dollar narrowed its decline during the New York trading session, still oscillating between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, the implied volatility of options fell, and prices stabilized.

At 5 am Beijing time on Wednesday, the offshore RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.8788 yuan, down 0.06% from the previous trading day in New York.

Onshore, the yuan against the US dollar closed at 6.8835 on Friday, up 0.07% from the previous trading day; Beijing officially closed at 6.8915 yuan at 16:30 on Friday, which was basically flat compared with the previous trading day.

Today's attention

08:30 Japan March service industry PMI and integrated PMI

15:45 Italian March service industry PMI and integrated PMI

15:50 French service industry PMI final value and comprehensive PMI final value in March

15:55 German service industry PMI final value and comprehensive PMI final value in March

16:00 Eurozone March March service industry PMI final value and comprehensive PMI final value

16:30 UK March Service PMI and Integrated PMI

20:15 US ADP employment changes in March

21:45 US March Markit service industry PMI final value

22:00 US March ISM non-manufacturing index

22:30 US Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases government weekly crude oil inventory weekly report

02:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the March FOMC monetary policy meeting